Day 165 - Goals and Race Strategy

Goals
In my mind the actual race is a very small part of what I've accomplished over the past 6 months - but it doesn't hurt to have goals, even lofty goals for the run. So I've got three that I've had from the beginning.

1) Finish the Marathon
This may seem like an obvious one, but it's not necessarily automatic. I've never run this distance before, so I don't know what I'll be feeling during the final 10km. I don't know when "the wall" will hit, I don't know how my body will respond. I will be very happy crossing the finish line whether I run it in 4 hours or 5 hours as long as I put everything I have into it.

2) Time: 3:30
This is the key goal. If I can beat 3:30 then I will have accomplished something pretty amazing for my first marathon. I ran the half marathon in a time that would be converted to a sub-3:30 time in the longer distance, and I had a lot left at the end. I've got a shot.

3) Time: Around 3:15
This is the time that I could potentially run based on my 5km race times last summer assuming that I train for the 42.1km distance. However, 5km and 42.1km is a big difference. I will be surprised if I get close to this time in my first marathon but it has been the time that I've been training for. It's the dream goal and would qualify me for the Boston Marathon.

Strategy
I'm looking at an even split strategy (the time for every kilometer will be the same), which is a bit aggressive since I've never experienced this distance before (I keep saying it, but it's a big issue). I'm aiming for 4:37 minutes per kilometer which I know I can keep for about 30km. It's the final 1/4 of the race that's unknown.

If the 4:37 pace is too fast then I'm going to hit "the wall" early and hard and it will be an incredible struggle to make it to the finish line. That is a very strong possibility. The training I've done has been based on a peak weekly mileage (85km) that is lower than what is considered ideal for a marathon. The peak I choose was based on my past running experience and my "respect the body" mentality. Plus, due my foot injury (and the goal of preventing additional injuries) I was only able to hit my peak mileage one out of three times. This is a HUGE obstacle for accomplishing my goals.

Another obstacle is the lack of a pace bunny for my time. It means I'll have to pace myself - and make sure I don't start out too fast. If I run too fast in the first two kilometers it will have a devastating impact on my final 10km.

I'll be having a sip or two of Gatorade at each station - which is positioned every 2km along to course. Every 40 minutes I'll start eating (drinking?) a gel and use my fuel belt to wash it down. That means 4 gels along the course and I'll have 1 about 15 minutes before the race starts.

If I can get into a good rhythm I've got a shot. I did manage to get into a good rhythm during the half marathon but it took me several kilometers before I could figure it out. That was, however, the first time I had run at marathon pace.

I can't control the weather, and it's going to be miserable tomorrow. Wet, cold and windy. The cool isn't so bad, overcast would be good - but not the wet and windy. In a way it relieves some of the pressure but in another more important way it sucks. I'll have to run the race knowing it won't be ideal conditions.

The key points in the race will be the first 2 and final 7 kilometers. What happens in those 9 kilometers will most likely determine how I cross the finish line.